How much better are the Golden State Warriors than the Dallas Mavericks? Good enough to be up three games to nothing in their NBA Western Conference finals series?
Well, thus far the matchups certainly have not added up to be anything but a disadvantage for the Mavs, even though they put one of the best players in the world (Luka Doncic) on the floor.
So BetAnySports customers need to evaluate whether a desperate Mavericks team has what it takes to extend this series at least one more game. And it will begin around 9 PM ET at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.
Look, Doncic is not going quietly; he scored 40 points in Game 3, even in a 109-100 defeat. But the Warriors are essentially daring the Mavs to beat them with the other members of their lineup, and by and large, they are not doing that.
Aside from Spencer Dinwiddie, there has not been very much coming out of the Dallas bench. And three-pointers, which are a staple of the Dallas “diet,” have not been a profitable component of the formula.
The Mavericks went 18 for 45 from beyond the arc in Sunday’s game. That’s 29%, and that won’t win games against this opponent.
The thing Golden State must guard against more than anything else right now is complacency. But the attitude coming out of the Dallas locker room seemed to indicate that the series was all but over.
NBA Playoff Odds – Mavs vs Warriors
Desperate teams often come up with their best effort, especially at home. In the NBA playoff odds that have been placed on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, the Mavs are the favorite on their home floor:
Dallas Mavericks -1
Golden State Warriors +1
Over 215.5 Points -110
Under 215.5 Points -110
And remember that you can place wagers in real time once the game starts, through Premier Lines, Ultimate Lines or Super Lines!
According to bookie pay per head providers, some of this is pretty simple. Dallas has to shoot better. They are hitting just 41% of their shots overall, compared to Golden State’s sizzling 53%. And the Mavs are not getting second shot opportunities, as they have an offensive rebounding percentage of just 15.2%.
It wasn’t a secret that the Mavericks came into this series without a lot of muscle. And because of that, the Warriors were going to be able to put smaller lineups on the floor when they wanted and be able to operate with a certain degree of impunity.
The two-way star of this series has been Andrew Wiggins, who came into the league as a #1 overall pick who could drain 20 points per game, and has turned out to be a great complement to Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. Wiggins is the player who has been given primary responsibility for dealing with Doncic, and it’s not just a matter of keeping him from going off on a scoring spree. Doncic is going to be getting his points. But is he forcing it or not?
We know the offense is going to run through Luka. He’s got a 38.8% “Usage” percentage. But the Mavs often lack ball movement when he has the rock in his hands, and he can’t make plays with his teammates, that’s a big thing. So far in the series, Doncic has 15 assists and 12 turnovers. That needs to be better. He needs to get teammates involved. But the fundamentals aren’t favoring his team at all. If I can get the better team, as an underdog, that is an event that is well worth considering.
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